4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP