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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-J.Ross III pushed ob at MIA 34 for 12 yards (32-L.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model