Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Miami Dolphins 21

(13:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis pushed ob at MIA 17 for 3 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model