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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model