Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to MIA 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 25 for 10 yards (17-S.Morgan; 29-T.McRae). PENALTY on MIA-86-M.Hollins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.59 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model