Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 6

(5:05) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 24, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 35 for 11 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model