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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model