Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 6 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(1:51) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model