4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 9, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP