Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 17

(7:50) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to GB 15, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 25 for 10 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.82 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model