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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-N.Webster. PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model