Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 28

(2:50) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model