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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 28 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-25-D.Long.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model