Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 28

(11:53) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-N.Webster to LA 43 for 1 yard (41-E.Moseley; 33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.31 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model