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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SF 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model