Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to LA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-N.Webster MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 8. 14-N.Webster to LA 8 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.56 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model