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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to LA 47, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.46 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP