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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 59

New York Giants 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to WAS 19, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.80 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP