Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 78

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 21

(2:28) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-D.Scott to NYG 27 for -1 yards (30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.04 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model