Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 68

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 28

(11:58) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-D.Scott to NYG 17 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model