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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 82

New York Giants 28 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to WAS 40, Center-69-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model