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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 35

New York Giants 35 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 2-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP