Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 64

Washington Commanders 28 – New York Giants 35

(9:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model