Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 56

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to PIT 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 43 for 30 yards (4-L.Edwards). PENALTY on PIT-37-J.Dangerfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model