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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model