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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 19

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model