4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 75

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to PIT 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 42 for 17 yards (85-T.Wesco).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model