4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(:43) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to NYJ 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model