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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 24

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.99 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model