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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NYJ 34, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model