Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 68

New York Jets 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(1:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to PIT 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.51 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model