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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 57

New York Jets 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP