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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to NYJ 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 41 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 37-J.Dangerfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model