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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 36

New York Jets 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 9-S.Ficken 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP