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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model