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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model