Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(9:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.66 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP

KICK -0.93 EP

37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model