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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP