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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 16

Chicago Bears 8 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 15-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model