Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 18

(7:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CHI 24, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model