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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 51

Chicago Bears 18 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -1.49 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model