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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model