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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 7

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model