Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 3

(4:31) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model