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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to MIA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-T.Davis pushed ob at MIA 17 for 7 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP