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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(:11) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.25 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model