Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 72

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 17

(12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to MIA 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.88 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model