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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 51

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel. ball batted back before landing in end zone by 18-Slater

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model