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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 39, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model