Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 0

(12:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.02 EP
59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model